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AUERBACH GRAYSON ISI wktech 14 11 14 .pdf



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Fri
Nov 14
Rich Ross, CMT
212 653 8995
richross@isigrp.com
2014
“Technicals Suggest US Equity Rally Poised to Continue into 2015 
Despite Global Macro Currency and Commodity Concerns” 

Weekly Macro Technical Strategy

 

Charts: Dollar Index, EUR, GBP, SEK, NOK, JPY, EURJPY, RUB, BRL, MXN, CAD, ZAR, AUD, NZD, WTI Crude, 
Brent Crude, Natural Gas, Heating Oil, Gasoline, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum, Palladium, XAU, US 2 Year 
Yield, US 5 Year Yield, US 10 Year Yield, US 30 Year Yield, German 10 Year, French 10 Year, EEM, Brazil, 
Mexico, Russia, Turkey, India, Shanghai Composite, H‐Shares, Hang Seng, Nikkei, Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, 
Vietnam, Dubai, Egypt, S. Africa, ASX 200, Euro STOXX 50, STOXX 600, STOXX 600 Banks, Germany, France, 
UK, Nordics, Switzerland, Austria, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Transports, 
Utilities, NDX 100, Russell 2000, Midcap 400, IBB, DRG, Healthcare, IHF, CI, UNH, Staples, PG, UTY, RMZ, 
BXP, ITB, LEN, XAL, UAL, ALK, SOX, AAPL, MSFT, PAYX, SRCL, TRIP, TSCO, AMXN, AMGN, BBBY, BIDU, GOOGL, 
HSIC, LLTC 
 

Key Themes: While the rapidly accelerating technical erosion in Crude Oil and Commodity Currencies may 
one day hold more sinister Global Macro implications for equities; in the short to intermediate term the fact 
remains  that  the  US  Stock  Market  is  currently  comprised  of  a  myriad  of  classically  Bullish  long  and  short 
term stock and sector charts, which suggests that upside remains into 2015 (see charts).  While admittedly 
the short term price action in Crude remains reprehensible, ultimately “tales of Crude’s demise” are more 
likely  a  Red  Herring  which  only  obscures  opportunity  in  the  US  equity  market,  rather  than  the  proverbial 
‘Canary  in  the  Coal  Mine’  which  signals  this  Bull  Market’s  end.  Our  favorite  sectors  in  the  US  include: 
Transportation (Airlines), Healthcare, REIT’s, Home Builders, Financials, Technology, Consumer Staples, and 
Select  Discretionary;  many  of  which  should  continue  to  benefit  from  low  interest  rates  (which  we  see  no 
evidence of climbing dramatically if at all) and lower energy prices (which should stabilize and lift, but not 
soar). As it pertains to Global Equities, Japan remains very constructive with upside to 20,400 on the Nikkei, 
however investors should factor in our view for the JPY to weaken to 124. We are decidedly less Bullish on 
Europe  on  a  relative  basis,  but  not  Bearish  absolutely.  The  Nordic  region  and  Switzerland  are  the  most 
constructive on the long side. In terms of the Emerging Markets, the charts continue to support commodity 
importers over exporters broadly speaking; as such we favor markets in India, Turkey, China and Frontier 
Asia. On the metals side, Gold and Silver remain uninspiring at best, and we continue to believe that $1,000 
is the most likely destination for the former. Palladium is our top metal on a relative and an absolute basis. 
Miners have the minimum amount of my attention from the long side as they cling to the 2008 panic lows 
(which should be used as a protective stop). Finally, from a Market Sentiment standpoint, the AAII Bullish 
Readings are at their highest levels of the year (58%); a historically contrarian indicator, but like the VIX, a 
blunt  and  imprecise  timing  tool.  Moreover, anecdotally  speaking  there  is  more  skepticism  out  there  than 
those surveys might otherwise suggest which perhaps partially mutes some of the public’s unbridled brio.               
*See the last page of this report for an important disclosure regarding these stocks and this report.  

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