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97 Consensus Myth.pdf


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2/17/2014

Contents
Overview of Comparison Charts of the Key Surveys ........................................................... 6
The “Science” of Statisticulation .......................................................................................... 10
Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 10

Consensus – What does it mean? ............................................................................................ 12
Human Impact on Climate – Range of Possible Influence .................................................... 14
Human versus Natural Forcings ............................................................................................. 14
97% Consensus? No. Not Even Close. ..................................................................................... 15
Method .......................................................................................................................................... 17
Results .......................................................................................................................................... 18

Surveys are Inconsistent with Academic and Scientific Standards ...................................... 18
Review of Abstracts Inadequate to Assess the Position of Scientist on AGW ...................... 18
On-line Opinion Poll Inadequate and Inappropriate to Assess a Subject Based on Scientific
Evidence .................................................................................................................................... 21
Unstated Bias of Authors ......................................................................................................... 27
This is Not Consensus .............................................................................................................. 28
Statistical Probability .............................................................................................................. 30
The Undefined “Consensus” ..................................................................................................... 30
Description of Variables ...................................................................................................... 30

Variables ................................................................................................................................... 32
Related Consensus Studies – A Brief Overview......................................................................... 35

Powell and Lewandowsky – Consensus or Mockery .............................................................. 35
Mockery as a Tool to Delegitimize those who Challenge the Consensus .............................. 35
Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 36

Summary of Results ................................................................................................................. 36
The Kiss of Social Death .......................................................................................................... 37
Implications .................................................................................................................................. 41

Points to Consider ................................................................................................................. 42

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